Normal/below normal rains likely in monsoon


LAHORE, June 14 (APP): Monsoon rains are expected
to be normal in the first half and below normal in the
second half this year, said a spokesman for Pakistan
Meteorogical Department here on Wednesday.
He said, “Large uncertainties prevail in the evolution
of ENSO and IOD, however, most of the models are in consensus
of neutral phase of phenomena during the season. Following
the statistical and dynamical downscaling of global circulation
models, salient features of outlook for the season (July
to September) 2017 are as under:
Area weighted rainfall during monsoon season over
Pakistan is expected to fall short of long term average.
However, rainfall will be highly variable over temporal
and spatial scale.
During July, monsoon rainfall may range in normal
limits but less than normal rainfall is likely in August
and September.
Less frequent rains in southern half of the country
may trigger drought like conditions.
There is a high probability of localized rain spells
which may generate flash flooding in mountainous and sub-
mountainous regions.
Due to erratic behaviour of summer monsoon, extreme
precipitation events may occur at isolated places in the
country, which can result into floods.
Localized events of rainfall coupled with rapid melting
in the glaciated regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral
may trigger GLOF events.