- Advertisement -
KARACHI, Oct 23 (APP):The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Monday, said that Pakistan’s economic situation started to show some early signs of improvement and real GDP growth is expected to remain in the range of 2-3% while inflation may subside to 20 to 22% in FY24.
The Central Bank, in its Annual Report on the State of Pakistan’s Economy for the fiscal year 2022-23 released here, underscored the need of initiating broad-ranging reforms to ensure the availability of resources for economic growth and development and also stressed expediting tax policy reforms and speedy implementation of governance reforms in PSEs terming them instrumental to create fiscal space for public investment in human and physical capital.
The SBP also underscored the need to create a conducive environment to support foreign direct investment in exportable sectors and encourage technology transfers, coupled with agriculture sector reforms that were required to alleviate import reliance and for achieving price stability.
“There is a need to expedite these reforms to achieve a high and sustainable economic growth required to absorb the new entrants in labor market, improve social welfare and raise the general standard of living in the country,” the SBP suggested.
The report highlighted that Pakistan’s economic situation has started to show some early signs of improvement as the country has been able to secure a US$ 3.0 billion Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) from IMF, towards the end of FY23, which helped in alleviating near-term risks to external sector.
The high-frequency indicators are suggesting bottoming out of economic activity from July 2023 while withdrawal of guidance on import prioritization, alongside gradual ease in FX position, was expected to somewhat ameliorate the supply chain situation and lift growth in LSM as well as exports, it said. The expected rebound in cotton and rice production will support agriculture growth in FY24 and SBP while reflecting these considerations expects real GDP growth in the range of 2-3 percent in FY24.
The lagged impact of monetary tightening, and other contractionary measures, were expected to keep domestic demand in check, the SBP forecast adding that the prospects of improvement in the supply situation on account of likely increase in production of important crops and imports is expected to bring down inflation in the range of 20.0 – 22.0 percent in FY24.
“Slightly improved global and domestic growth prospects are expected to bolster foreign exchange earnings from exports of goods and services. Although import volumes are likely to increase, lower commodity prices may prevent a significant expansion in imports bill during FY24,’ the central bank noted and on the basis of these factors projected that current account deficit to fall in the range of 0.5-1.5 percent of GDP in FY24.
According to the report, Pakistan’s economy faced multiple challenges during FY23, as longstanding structural weaknesses exacerbated the impact of successive domestic and global supply shocks of unprecedented nature.
“The country’s macroeconomic situation had already begun to deteriorate since the second half of FY22 in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, elevated global commodity prices and an unplanned fiscal expansion,” the report stated adding that the situation worsened during FY23 owing to floods, delay in the completion of the 9th review of the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, continuing domestic uncertainty, and tightening global financial conditions.
The report termed the devastating monsoon floods as the major factor that significantly dented economic activity, fueled inflationary pressures, increased stress on external account and widened fiscal imbalance because of spending on relief efforts.
The SBP warned that the uncertain global economic and financial conditions those were softening but still elevated, global commodity prices, higher debt servicing and reduced external inflows had implications for various sectors of the economy.
The confluence of these developments substantially weakened Pakistan’s macroeconomic performance during FY23 and the real GDP growth fell to the third-lowest level since FY52, while average National CPI inflation spiked to a multi-decade high, the report highlighted.
Though the current account deficit narrowed considerably, limited foreign inflows maintained pressures on the external account leading to a decline in SBP’s FX reserves while reflecting the unsustainable fiscal policy stance of the past many years, a sharp increase in interest payments, persistently large energy subsidies and lower-than-targeted tax collection contributed to less than envisaged fiscal consolidation during FY23.
The report noted that Pakistan’s economic performance in FY23 highlights the importance of addressing perennial structural impediments that pose serious risks to the country’s macroeconomic stability.
“Foremost among these are inadequate and slow tax policy reforms that have constricted the resource envelope, even for meeting current expenditures while inefficiencies in public sector enterprises (PSEs) have led to a permanent drain on fiscal resources,” the banking regulator indicated adding that they have squeezed space for development spending required to enhance the economy’s productive capacity. The report further pointed out that anemic investment in physical and human capital as well as R&D has impeded the development of a technology-intensive manufacturing base and the next level value-added exports.
Stagnant crop yields and lack of attention to the development of the food supply chain and to address food market imperfections have led to sustained reliance on imported food commodities and the trends underpin the unsustainable current account balance, which has increased the country’s vulnerability to global supply shocks, the report stated.
In this context, the availability of factual information on key macroeconomic variables, markets, businesses, and individual welfare are important ingredients for evidence-based policymaking, the report noted that also included a special chapter on the need to streamline the state of Pakistan’s National Statistical System (NSS) and identifies some suggestions for NSS reforms.