ISLAMABAD, Aug 31 (APP):Lieutenant General (R) Sarfraz Sattar, former Director General of Strategic Plans Division (SPD) Thursday said that India was feverishly indulged in unprecedented increase in its fissile material stockpile and acquisition of all kinds of weapon systems and technologies, posing a great risk to the region and beyond.
In his keynote address at the launch of a book titled “Emerging Threats and Shifting Doctrines: Challenges to Strategic Stability in South Asia”, edited by Malik Qasim Musfata, he said that the book was a second breath of fresh air coming out of Pakistan’s strategic community during the current year after Ambassador (R) Zamir Akram’s book on “Pakistan’s Nuclear Deterrence and Diplomacy”.
Other speakers at the seminar, hosted by the Arms Control & Disarmament Centre (ACDC) at the Institute of Strategic Studies (ISSI), included Major General (Retd) Ausaf Ali, Advisor, SPD; Malik Qasim Musfata, Director ACDC-ISSI; Ms. Ghazala Yasmin Jalil, Research Fellow ACDC-ISSI; Dr. Aqeel Akhtar, ACDA, SPD; Dr. Ahmad Khan, ACDA, SPD; Ms. Aamna Rafiq, Research Associate, ACDC-ISSI; Air Commodore (Retd) Khalid Banuri, former DG, ACDA, SPD; and Dr. Adil Sultan, Dean, FASS, Air University, Islamabad.
Sarfraz Sattar said topics covered in the ACDC’s book were contemporary in nature, arranged in a logical sequence, and related to the subject of strategic stability.
He added that Pakistan needed to brace itself for future contingencies where it could see the application of such a course to gain ascendency over a short span of time.
He said there was already talk of such a thing happening around the next Indian elections. India with its nuclear power had a hegemonic design and it would continue to pressurize Pakistan and force it to either fight or give in, he concluded.
Earlier, in his welcome remarks, ISSI Director General Sohail Mahmood said that it was no exaggeration to say that the world, today, was at a major inflection point. There was an intensification of geopolitics and the proliferation of old and new threats, both in traditional and non-traditional security domains.
He said it was important to view the developments in South Asia against this backdrop. Without a doubt, the transformation in South Asia’s security environment had both global impulses and regional dynamics.
Malik Qasim Mustafa, Director ACDC-ISSI, and editor of the book, stated that each chapter of the book was unique in a way that each highlighted the impact of shifting doctrines and various emerging threats and when all are put together, it presented a bigger picture.
He added that India was shifting away from its positions and developing conventional and nuclear war-fighting doctrines; modernizing and enhancing its conventional and nuclear weapons capabilities; pursuing hypersonic and ballistic missiles programs; increasing its naval build-up; adding a nuclear dimension, wanted to control the Indian Ocean as a so-called “net security provider; militarizing space developing LAWS and weaponizing AI, and the cyber domain.
Given the rapid technological revolution at the global level and India-Pakistan conflictual relations, Major General (Retd) Ausaf Ali stressed the need to take timely actions to address the risks generated by LAWS.
In her remarks, Ms. Ghazala Yasmin Jalil said that India’s doctrinal transformation and precision strike weaponry eroded nuclear deterrence.
Dr. Aqeel Akhtar said that the development of sea-based nuclear capabilities constitutes a significant component of India’s nuclear modernization which raises the risks of arms race instability, aggressive nuclear posturing, command and control related issues, and higher alert levels in the region.
In his remarks, Dr. Ahmad Khan linked the Indian space ambitions with the changing South Asian strategic landscape.
While identifying the consolidation trends of emerging military technologies and their integration into the Indian military doctrine and nuclear posture, Ms. Aamna Rafiq said that such transformations would provide an entire spectrum of opportunities to India for the initiations of short, intense, and lethal crises under nuclear threshold against Pakistan.
In his comments, Air Commodore (Retd) Khalid Banuri stated that this book brings out the issue of Pakistan’s security dilemma. The official manifesto of the BJP clearly states that there is a need to enhance the strike capability of India.
In his comments, Dr. Adil Sultan stated after the 2019 crisis, India has moved rapidly to make qualitative and quantitative improvements in its air power and in the process of integrating it with its past capabilities.
He said any future crisis between the two nuclear neighbors might involve the use of unmanned vehicles as a cost-effective means to achieve a limited political objective. He thanked the authors and editor for their excellent work and highlighted the need for collective wisdom to build our narrative through credible research.
In his concluding remarks, Ambassador Khalid Mahmood, Chairman BoG ISSI, stated that strategic stability in South Asia was affected by extra-regional dynamics. A conventional asymmetry with India compelled Pakistan to go nuclear, making Pakistan a reluctant nuclear power in 1998. Ever since, the doctrines, postures, actions, and policies of India have eroded regional stability in the absence of any global oversight.
The launch was attended by academics, practitioners, former and serving Pakistani diplomats and officials, experts from think tanks, students, and members of the diplomatic corps in Islamabad.
