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By Momina Murad
ISLAMABAD, Jul 7 (APP)::With over 70 lives already lost and more than 130 injured during just ten days of monsoon rains, Pakistan faces another potentially catastrophic spell of weather. This year’s rainfall is expected to exceed average levels by 13%, and the warning signs are most alarming in the coastal districts of Thatta and Badin, regions long neglected yet now squarely on the frontlines of climate change.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has raised concerns as extreme weather events become more frequent and intense. Pakistan, though responsible for a fraction of global emissions, is among the countries most exposed to the consequences of climate change. From flooding to drought, the impact is no longer distant or theoretical, it is happening now, and most severely in places least equipped to cope.
One of the driving forces behind this crisis is the changing nature of rainfall. Dr. Furrukh Bashir, Director at the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), talking to APP said the structure of precipitation events has altered significantly in recent years. In the past, rainfall would span over several days in large, manageable systems. Now, short-lived but highly intense bursts of rain dominate, causing rapid water accumulation and overwhelming drainage systems. This shift has led to deadly flash floods, such as the recent incident in Swat where river discharge surged to 77,782 cusecs, resulting in multiple fatalities.
Wind patterns during monsoon season have also become increasingly volatile. Southern Sindh, which typically experiences dry westerly winds, now encounters moist easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal. These moisture-laden winds, when interacting with low-pressure systems, unleash heavy rains across low-lying coastal areas. This was clearly seen in 2022, when Thatta and Badin were hit hard, and the absence of adequate drainage infrastructure worsened the devastation. Roads turned into rivers, homes were flooded, and entire communities were cut off.
Sea intrusion worsens the crisis in low-lying areas like Keti Bandar and Badin, where rising sea levels push inland, forming deepening channels. These not only displace communities but threaten fragile ecosystems. PMD projects that in the next 5 to 10 years, this encroachment will intensify, causing greater soil salinization, damaging freshwater agriculture, and increasing flood risks.
Despite regular forecasts and alerts from the PMD, the gap between early warnings and local response remains a concern. Dr. Bashir notes that while authorities are informed about hazards—such as damage risks to solar panels and billboards—timely action is often lacking. He contrasts the effective evacuation during the 2010 Attabad Lake disaster with the delayed response in the recent Swat floods, underscoring inconsistencies in crisis management.
Dr. Bashir emphasizes the need for a multi-layered approach to protect vulnerable coastal areas like Thatta and Badin. Beyond issuing early warnings, district-level systems must be able to interpret and act on alerts swiftly. Institutional reforms are crucial to improve coordination between meteorological departments and local authorities. Without clear decision-making, even accurate forecasts fall short. Effective disaster preparedness requires defined command structures, community-led evacuations, and rapid-response teams.
Infrastructure must also adapt. Flood-prone areas need reinforced embankments, efficient drainage systems, and identification of vulnerable points where water may accumulate or breach. At the same time, low-cost, community-based measures—like rainwater harvesting, local shelters, and cooling zones during heatwaves—should be scaled up to build grassroots resilience.
The socio-economic vulnerability of residents in Thatta and Badin cannot be ignored. Many rely on subsistence farming and livestock, making evacuation an impossible choice. “We hear flood warnings on the radio, but where can we go?” asks Naseema Khatoon, a 38-year-old mother of four. “Our livestock is everything. If we leave, we lose it all. So we stay—even if the water rises.”
Although tools like daily risk forecasts, GLOF monitoring, and tsunami alert systems exist, their effectiveness depends on public awareness and swift government action. Dr. Bashir warns that technology alone isn’t enough—timely decisions and public cooperation are equally critical.
Pakistan’s future depends on how it addresses recurring climate shocks. While the challenge is immense, it’s not beyond reach. Through smart policy, targeted infrastructure investment, and empowered communities, places like Thatta and Badin can move from crisis zones to models of resilience. The urgency is clear—but so is the opportunity to build a safer, stronger tomorrow.