By Shaira Batool
ISLAMABAD, Aug 11 (APP):: Faced with faltering influence in its own backyard, India is now looking across oceans to secure new alliances. As tensions rise in South Asia and regional dynamics shift unfavorably, New Delhi is betting big on Latin America, a region once peripheral to its foreign policy, signaling a striking recalibration of its global outreach.
Since coming to power in 2014, the Modi government, driven by increasingly hegemonic policies, now appears to be losing ground in South Asia, as shifting regional dynamics erode its traditional influence. In what appears to be both a strategy of survival and diplomatic rescue, India is turning to Latin America, where the emergence of new partnerships marks a significant and deliberate shift in its global outreach.
Experts say this pivot is not just strategic but also reactive. Maj Gen (R) Raza Muhammad, a CPEC scholar and former Pakistani ambassador, told APP, “India cannot match China’s financial footprint, especially across the 1,540+ countries engaged with the BRI. It cannot replace China. The U.S. and its allies are supporting India to contain China, and India may have to align with U.S. tariff conditions under President Trump for its own future.”
India’s position in South Asia is undergoing a notable transformation. Its engagement with Latin America has elevated the region from a distant priority to a central element of its foreign policy. Prime Minister Modi’s state visits to Brazil and Chile in mid-2025 highlighted this change. Bilateral trade reached $35.73 billion in 2023–2024, with a target of $100 billion by 2025, part of India’s broader push to diversify global partnerships and reduce dependence on traditional allies.
This diplomatic pivot also reflects India’s growing concerns over China’s expanding influence in South Asia. As Beijing deepens its economic and strategic footprint, New Delhi is turning westward to offset its diminishing leverage in the region.
India’s neighborhood diplomacy paints a complicated picture. Relations with Pakistan remain tense amid continued hostility. Ties with China are marked by strategic caution. Meanwhile, friction with Bangladesh has intensified following PM Sheikh Hasina’s resignation in August 2024 and the rise of M. Younus, shifting Dhaka’s traditionally pro-India stance.
Critics argue that India’s assertive foreign policy, driven by self-interest and propaganda, has contributed to its regional isolation. Its repeated attempts to portray Pakistan negatively, especially since 2014, have only fueled tensions across South Asia.
Zafar Paracha, General Secretary of ECAP, talking to APP highlighted the trust deficit in the region, saying, “India is not a reliable trade partner. It prioritizes national interest above all. After the U.S. tariff hike, it’s shifting focus to Latin America for trade security.”
An economic journalist and analyst Dr Ashraf Wani noted that while the Latin America pivot may reduce India’s reliance on the U.S., EU, and Gulf nations, it won’t entirely replace them. “This is diversification, not substitution,” the analyst said, adding that India’s ability to maintain balance will be tested.
India’s key goals in Latin America include securing energy resources (oil), access to strategic minerals like lithium and copper, agricultural imports, and expanding markets for Indian pharmaceuticals, IT, and manufactured goods.
While this strategic realignment offers India fresh global opportunities, its slipping grip over South Asia raises serious questions about the long-term costs of its regional policies. As India pushes forward with its Latin American engagement, the erosion of its traditional neighborhood dominance presents a complex diplomatic challenge.
Latin America, with a combined GDP exceeding $5 trillion and a population of over 650 million, offers vast trade potential in energy, agriculture, and critical minerals like lithium and copper. The region’s trade volume with global partners continues to grow, with countries like China, the U.S., and the EU leading the way. However, for South Asian nations, including India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, expanding trade with Latin America presents challenges such as geographic distance, limited direct shipping routes, high tariffs, and lack of regional trade agreements. Overcoming these barriers requires sustained diplomatic engagement, logistical investment, and diversified trade policies.