- Advertisement -
ISLAMABAD, May 29 (APP):Director General of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Mahr Sahibzad Khan Thursday indicated possibility of normal to slightly above-normal rainfall in central and southern regions in the upcoming monsoon season while northern areas are expected to receive comparatively less precipitation.
During a media briefing about the upcoming monsoon season, Sahibzad Khan stated that central to southern parts of the country are likely to witness normal to slightly above-normal rainfall, with the highest deviations expected in northeastern Punjab and Kashmir.
In contrast, the northern regions, including northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Gilgit-Baltistan, may receive normal to slightly below-normal rainfall during the forecast period.
He added that the monthly and seasonal outlook has been developed using the output of eight global seasonal prediction models that offer optimal forecasting accuracy.
In terms of temperature, Mahr Sahibzad Khan informed that mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal across the country.
The maximum temperature anomalies are projected over Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, and adjoining areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
He explained that mean temperature refers to the average of maximum and minimum temperatures over a given period, and rising mean temperatures indicate a general warming trend, which may have wide-ranging impacts on agriculture, water availability, and human health.
The Director General warned of the possibility of extreme hydro-meteorological events that could lead to riverine floods in major rivers.
He highlighted that strong winds, dust storms, and hailstorms may occur due to sharp temperature gradients.
Flash or urban flooding is anticipated in hill torrent zones and plains of Sindh, Punjab, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), and KP during the first half of the monsoon season.
Elevated temperatures in upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir could accelerate snowmelt, thereby increasing river water levels.
He also pointed out that the above-normal temperatures in upper KP and Gilgit-Baltistan may contribute to an increased risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in those mountainous regions.
On a positive note, the anticipated rainfall is likely to ensure sufficient water availability for irrigation and power generation.
Due to the expected normal to slightly above-normal rainfall in North Punjab, AJK, and KP, there is a possibility of increased localized flooding, including both urban and flash flooding.
However, this rainfall will also aid in the replenishment of water reservoirs and underground water resources.
About the current water levels in major dams across the country, Sahibzad Khan shared updated figures indicating relatively stable conditions ahead of the high-demand summer season. Tarbela Dam currently stands at 1477 feet, which is 73 feet below its maximum conservation level of 1550 feet, but 75 feet above its dead level of 1402 feet. Mangla Dam is at 1160 feet, 82 feet below its maximum level of 1242 feet, and 110 feet above the dead level of 1050 feet. Rawal Dam reports a level of 1739 feet, just 13 feet below its maximum conservation level of 1752 feet, and 31 feet above the dead level of 1708 feet. Simly Dam shows a healthy water level of 2255 feet, 60 feet below the maximum level of 2315 feet, and 22 feet above its dead level of 2233 feet. Meanwhile, Khanpur Dam stands at 1926 feet, which is 56 feet below the maximum conservation level of 1982 feet, and 16 feet above the dead level of 1910 feet. These figures, the DG noted, reflect a positive outlook as most dams are well above their dead levels.
To ensure public safety and preparedness, the PMD has activated Emergency Operation Centers (EOCs) at both provincial and district levels.
Rescue and relief teams are being deployed in vulnerable areas for the monsoon period. Coordination with local administrations is underway for evacuation planning and early warning dissemination. Awareness campaigns have also been launched in at-risk communities to enhance public readiness.
The Met Office has advised the public to stay informed through official weather updates and alerts available on the PMD website (https://www.pmd.gov.pk/en) and through its mobile application (PMD Kissan App).
The DG advised the citizens to avoid unnecessary travel during heavy rainfall, keep emergency kits ready including flashlights, batteries, clean drinking water, and first aid supplies, and report any blocked drainage or water accumulation to local authorities. Citizens are also warned to stay away from electric poles, rivers, and canals during storms.