PESHAWAR, Jul 7 (APP): Pakistan has been faced with twin monster challenges of climate change and global warming that had kept on increasing temperatures and melting of glaciers besides erratic rainfalls with high chances of flash floods in Rivers Swat and Kabul during the monsoon season in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The rise of global temperature, excessive discharge of greenhouse gas emissions and high combustion of fossil fuels including coal, oil and natural gases by developed countries had put Pakistan in extreme danger of climate change-induced disasters including flash floods, heat waves, droughts and fast melting of glaciers at Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit Baltistan.

Despite having less than one percent global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan is left with no option but forced to pay the heavy price of man-made climate change injustices in terms of over USD 40 billion in economic, agricultural, and financial losses due to the last year’s flood devastation.

The weather unpredictability and climate change injustices have made over 7,253 glaciers including 2,253 mighty and medium glaciers in Gilgit Baltistan and around 500 in Chitral under heightening dangers to melt fast with increased chances of flash floods in Rivers Indus, Kabul, Punjkora and Kunhar.

Niaz Ali Khan, former Chief Conservator of KP Forest Department told APP that glaciers in low alpine pastures areas in upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including Chitral were melting fast due to global warming and the down districts of Nowshera, Charsadda and Peshawar were at high risk of flash floods in Rivers Swat, Chitral and Kabul during the monsoon season, adding that most of these glaciers were located at Trichmir mountains range in Chitral.

With glaciers retreat, he said glacial lakes would form like that of Atabad Lake in Gilgit Baltistan and chances of Glacial Lake Outbursts Floods (GLOF) would also increase, especially in northern Pakistan.

“The geographical location of Pakistan, especially of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa had made it vulnerable to climate change vulnerabilities due to the high rate of deforestation and population growth,” he said, adding “We should not forget how the 2022 flash flood in River Swat had swept away expensive hotels at Kalam and Bahrain, caused USD 40 billion economic losses to the government kitty besides affecting over 33 million people, destroyed/damaged one million houses and killed over 1,100 individuals in addition to the precious loss of the flood water.

Citing the 2018 National Water Policy report, Niaz Ali said the per capita surface water availability has declined from 5260 cubic meters per annum in 1951 to around 1000 cubic meters in 2016 and this quantity was likely to further drop to about 860 cubic meters in 2025, marking our transition from water-stressed to water-scarce country.

Niaz said Pakistan’s average annual rainfall was ranged between 400 millimetres to 1000 millimetres while snowfall ranged from about 60 inches to 80 inches mostly recorded in Murree, Galayat and Upper Swat and its fast melting in summer enhances the chances of flash floods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab.

He said Pakistan needs to preserve glaciers and rains waters of monsoon for agriculture and human consumption by constructing large and small dams to avert flash floods and address the energy crisis in the country that had made the life of common people miserable these days.

Keeping in view the devastation of last year’s floods, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government has chalked out a monsoon contingency plan for 2023 to minimize the risk of floods and ensure a timely response by the relief, rehabilitation and settlement department and provincial disaster management authority (PDMA) KP.

Taimur Khan, Spokesperson of the Relief and Settlement Department told APP that district administration, provincial and federal line departments and humanitarian partners were engaged in developing this plan in light of the lessons learned from previous rains and floods incidents.

He said 10 districts, including Chitral Upper, Chitral Lower, Swat, DI Khan, Tank, Charsadda, Nowshera, Kohistan Upper, Shangla, and Dir Upper, are identified as very highly prone and six other districts, Malakand, Dir Lower, Tor Ghar, Kohistan Lower, Kolai Palas Kohistan, and Peshawar, are high risk for floods and rains related disasters.

“The monsoon plan 2023 focuses on a flood-risk management approach that encompasses prevention, mitigation, preparedness, emergency response, and recovery measures. Prevention measures focus on discouraging construction in current and future flood-prone areas, adapting future developments to flood risks, and promoting appropriate land use and agricultural practices.

Mitigation strategies include structural and non-structural measures aimed at reducing the likelihood and impact of floods in specific locations. Preparedness efforts aim to educate the population about flood risks and provide guidance on appropriate actions.

Taimur said emergency response plans are being developed to ensure a swift and effective response in the event of a flood. The plan incorporates recovery and lessons learned components to minimize social and economic impacts on affected communities and facilitate their return to normalcy.

Key outcomes expected from the monsoon plan include raising awareness and building capacity for effective response, anticipating and allocating necessary resources based on threat perception, developing integrated planning capacities, and addressing gaps through preparatory measures.

Janat Gul Afridi, Director General of PDMA, said the plan focuses on mitigating the potential impact of floods, implementing improved early warning systems, streamlining evacuation procedures, and enhancing communication channels.

The plan places significant emphasis on community engagement to ensure their active participation in disaster preparedness. By involving and empowering the community, the plan aims to enhance resilience and response capabilities, fostering a collaborative approach to tackle the challenges posed by monsoon-related disasters.

Abdul Basit, Secretary Relief Department said that focus was made on disaster risk reduction, management and continuous assessment of vulnerabilities and risks. He said the department was effectively implementing the Monsoon Plan 2023 by considering the recommendations and expertise of all stakeholders involved. “This endeavour reflects a shared vision of protecting lives, preserving infrastructure, and minimizing the impact of floods on communities residing in flood-prone areas.”

Abdul Basit said PDMA has already dispatched relief and necessary items to all district administrations and concerned line departments and assured that other essential items can be provided during times of need.

He said PDMA has installed a flood Early Warning System (EWS) in the upper catchment areas on seven critical points five rivers and two nallahs to monitor the water level and generate early warning intimation in to protect the human losses.

EWS analyses existing data with previous flash flood historical data and, upon reaching a dangerous level and generating alert signals, he concluded.