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By Maryam Shah
ISLAMABAD, Dec 8 (APP): Pakistan is expected to experience a usual, normal but drier winter this year, according to the latest seasonal outlook from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
While earlier forecasts and public discussions suggested the possibility of an unusually cold winter, the department now indicates that conditions are likely to be different, with weak La Niña influences shaping temperatures, rainfall, and weather systems across the country. The seasonal outlook also highlights potential implications for agriculture, livestock, and local communities.
Chief Meteorologist Dr. Afzaal explained that La Niña, a climate phenomenon characterized by the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, is currently strong in some parts of the world, affecting rainfall and weather patterns globally. “However, in Pakistan, including Islamabad, the La Niña effect is expected to be relatively weak and not strong enough to trigger extreme cold,” he said. Historically, La Niña tends to suppress winter rainfall rather than increase it, and early-season weather systems are likely to be fewer than usual.
Dr Afzaal added that maximum temperatures are expected to remain around or slightly above seasonal averages, while minimum temperatures may experience occasional cold episodes, including the typical two to three cold waves observed in most winters. Between November and January, Pakistan is likely to see fewer rain-bearing systems, reduced precipitation, and routine winter conditions, contrary to earlier predictions suggesting extreme cold.
Rainfall is projected to be below normal during the early months, particularly in northern Punjab, Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Southern Punjab, Sindh, and parts of southern Balochistan may receive near-normal precipitation, but the overall early-season trend is likely to be drier than usual.
However, Dr. Afzal noted that rainfall activity may improve after January, when Western Disturbances are expected to penetrate Pakistan more frequently. “These systems may bring rain and snowfall to northern regions. Following their passage, northwesterly winds could lower minimum temperatures, leading to late-season cold waves,” he added, emphasizing that these conditions remain within normal seasonal variations.
While temperature and rainfall trends are receiving public attention, PMD officials are also highlighting the potential impact on agriculture and livestock.
Director Agromet Centre Asma Jawad pointed out that prolonged dry spells could affect soil moisture and the growth of winter crops, particularly in rainfed areas where irrigation is limited. “Rabi crops, especially wheat, are highly sensitive to winter rainfall.
Reduced precipitation may slow crop growth and limit yields, particularly in areas that rely solely on rain for irrigation,” she said. In extreme cases, prolonged dryness could significantly reduce production or even lead to partial crop failure in vulnerable regions.
Livestock may also face challenges due to slower growth of fodder and reduced grazing availability. Asma Jawad advised farmers to adopt mitigation measures, including providing additional irrigation where possible and protecting frost-sensitive nurseries or crops by covering them at night or using vegetation barriers to shield plants from cold northwesterly winds during early mornings.
The PMD outlook also notes the likelihood of dense fog and smog episodes, particularly in Punjab, upper Sindh, and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, due to stable atmospheric conditions and limited early-season rainfall. These conditions may temporarily reduce visibility, degrade air quality, and create health concerns until late-season rains improve circulation and clear pollutants.
Officials emphasized that the seasonal forecast is probabilistic and subject to updates as global atmospheric signals evolve. “While La Niña is stronger in other parts of the world, its effect here in Pakistan is comparatively weaker, and conditions may change as we receive more data,” Dr. Afzaal said, urging communities, farmers, and authorities to monitor official updates.
While this winter may not bring record-breaking cold, the expected usual and drier conditions mean that preparedness for irrigation, crop protection, and air-quality management will be important, particularly in rainfed and vulnerable regions. PMD recommends that farmers remain proactive in managing soil moisture, protecting crops from frost, and preparing for periods of delayed rainfall to reduce risks to both agriculture and livestock.
Overall, the weak La Niña is expected to have a moderate impact on Pakistan’s weather, producing a season that is normal, expectedly drier, and slightly less rainy than usual, but without extreme cold. The department continues to monitor developments and will provide regular updates to help communities plan for potential challenges during the winter season 2025–26.