BEIJING, Mar 21 (APP): The Indian government’s recent acts and remarks over the Chinese territory of Zangnan or Arunachal Pradesh are in the interests of helping Prime Minister Narendra Modi win re-election, as he and his party want to shape a hawkish image for their nationalist voters.
This does not necessarily mean that India will take real actions to provoke China or change the status quo in border regions because New Delhi wants to win the election, not spark a military conflict that it cannot afford, Chinese analysts said.
Lin Minwang, a research fellow at the Center for South Asian Studies, Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times that “India’s recent acts and remarks are serving the Modi administration’s purpose to win the upcoming election, so it’s important for us to take this background into consideration.”
Chinese analysts said the Modi administration and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) want to show a hawkish and hard-line image to their nationalist voters, and being tough against China on border issues is a very effective tactic in the election.
However, India’s recent remarks have not gone beyond its existing stance, and its military deployments and relevant projects are more like internal adjustments and would not be able to change the status quo of the border area significantly.
“On the issue of Zangnan area, China and India are crystal clear about the stances of each other, so considering how to prevent this issue from escalating, we hope that both sides could have some consensuses and tacit understanding. The possibility of India unilaterally launching provocations in the border regions remains low,” Lin noted.
The Modi administration wants to shape its image as being hard-line rather than provoking an actual military conflict with China that it cannot afford, said a Beijing-based Chinese military expert who asked for anonymity. “The border conflicts in recent years alongside the border region prove that India has always suffered losses, and if it provokes a conflict at this moment and receives a military failure, that would be extremely bad for the BJP in the election.”
When India hypes the topic of Zangnan with high-profile rhetoric, China does not need to overreact, as this serves the Modi administration’s election purposes. China needs to pay attention to India’s moves and give India’s hysterical remarks the appropriate response, experts said.
Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the Modi administration has always tried to use the issue of Zangnan to bargain with China.
“Militarily, China needs to keep on high alert and be prepared for any provocation and present effective determination. Only by doing so can we make sure India will not be arrogant enough to do anything unwise,” Hu noted.
APP/asg
