Preservation of Indus Waters Treaty essential for regional stability across South Asia

MULTAN, Jun 28 (APP):Preservation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is essential for regional stability, ensuring food security and promoting long-term peace across South Asia, according to experts on legal and geopolitical affairs.

The experts warned that any retaliatory hydropolitics in South Asia could have catastrophic consequences for millions of people in a region already facing ecological stress and food insecurity.

Speaking to APP, the analysts referred to India’s unilateral announcement placing the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance following a deadly attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, in which 26 tourists were killed. India blamed cross-border militants for the assault, although the allegation remains unproven.

Dr Asif Safdar, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Bahauddin Zakariya University (BZU), described the term “abeyance” as legally ambiguous, noting that it neither appears in the treaty’s text nor is recognised under established principles of international law.

“There is a humanitarian and ecological cost to turning rivers into weapons,” he said. He added that under international legal frameworks, including the Indus Waters Treaty, Article 54 of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions, and the UN Watercourses Convention, deliberately disrupting water flows to harm civilian populations could amount to a war crime.

Dr Noraiz Arshad, also from BZU’s Department of Political Science, cautioned that attempts to use water as political leverage could intensify conflict, endanger millions of lives and undermine a legal framework that has largely preserved water-sharing arrangements for more than six decades.

He said such actions would represent a political choice rather than a legal necessity, calling the situation a critical test for international law at a time of rising nationalism.

“Prudence and respect for legal commitments must prevail to prevent further harm,” he remarked.

Highlighting Pakistan’s vulnerabilities, he noted that with reservoirs approaching dead storage levels and agriculture already under severe stress, even symbolic disruptions in water flows could trigger cascading effects on food security, energy generation and public health.

Dr Muqarrab Akbar, Professor of Political Science, stressed that transboundary rivers are intrinsically linked to regional security and cannot be subjected to unilateral suspension.

He warned that any violation or suspension of such agreements could have consequences extending far beyond the immediate region, raising serious concerns for all affected states.

It is pertinent to mention that for more than six decades, the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan has been regarded as one of the most enduring achievements of post-colonial diplomacy. Brokered by the World Bank in 1960, the agreement allocated control of the three eastern rivers including Ravi, Beas and Sutlej to India, while Pakistan received primary rights over the three western rivers i.e Indus, Jhelum and Chenab—with India permitted limited non-consumptive use under clearly defined conditions.

According to official figures, nearly 80 percent of Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture depends on the Indus River system, while the sector contributes around one-fifth of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and provides livelihoods to approximately 37 percent of the labour force. Experts believe that any prolonged disruption in river flows could adversely affect crop production, hydropower generation, drinking water supplies and overall economic stability, underscoring the urgent need to preserve the Indus Waters Treaty as a cornerstone of regional peace and sustainable development