ISLAMABAD, Jul 19 (APP): The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is maintaining its growth outlook for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific at 4.8 percent this year, as robust domestic demand continues to support the region’s recovery.
Inflation is expected to continue falling, approaching pre-pandemic levels as fuel and food prices decline, According to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) for July 2023 released by the ADB on Wednesday.
Growth in Pakistan in FY2023 (ended 30 June 2023) was weighed down by tighter monetary and fiscal policies to safeguard macroeconomic stability, pervasive inflation, and significant damage from flooding.
The ADO April 2023 projection for Pakistan in FY2024 assumes that the government will continue reform as recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under a new policy-support program approved on July 12.
Inflation in developing Asia is forecast at 3.6 percent this year, compared with April forecast of 4.2 percent.
The inflation outlook for 2024, meanwhile, is raised to 3.4 percent from an earlier estimate of 3.3 percent, it added.
The reopening of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is bolstering the region’s growth. The PRC’s economy is projected to expand 5.0 percent this year, unchanged from the April forecast, amid strong domestic demand in the services sector.
However, demand for developing Asia’s exports of electronics and other manufactured goods is slowing, as monetary tightening drags on economic activity in major advanced economies.
The region’s growth forecast for next year is marginally revised down to 4.7 percent from 4.8 percent estimate in April.
“Asia and the Pacific continue to recover from the pandemic at a steady pace,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park. “Domestic demand and services activity are driving growth, while many economies are also benefiting from a strong recovery in tourism. However, industrial activity and exports remain weak, and the outlook for global growth and demand next year has worsened.”
ADB is maintaining its growth forecasts for most sub-regions in Asia and the Pacific. Exceptions include Southeast Asia, where the outlook is lowered to 4.6 percent this year and 4.9 percent next year, compared with April estimates of 4.7 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively.
The forecast for Caucasus and Central Asia is revised down marginally to 4.3 percent from 4.4 percent for 2023, and to 4.4 percent from 4.6 percent in 2024.