22pc water shortage projected for Rabi season 2026-27

ISLAMABAD, Oct 06 (APP):The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) Advisory Committee on Tuesday approved an overall 22 per cent water shortage for the Rabi season 2026-27 for Punjab and Sindh.

The IRSA Advisory Committee (IAC) which met with Amjad Saeed in the Chair and approved the Anticipated Water Availability Criteria for Rabi from 1st Oct, 2026 to 31st March, 2027, said a news release.

The IAC also reviewed Anticipated Water Availability for Rabi 2026-27 as recommended by IRSA Technical Committee (ITC). After detailed deliberations and weighing different inflow options, IAC unanimously approved the anticipated likely Rim-Station inflows of 21.268 MAF, calculated by running various scenarios WAA-Tool jointly developed by CSIRO Australia, University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBCWM) and the stakeholders, along with 4% and 0% conveyance losses for Indus and JC Zones, respectively.

Based on the agreed inflows and other system operational parameters, overall system shortage worked out as 22% for both Punjab & Sindh, which was approved by the IAC subject to periodically review by IRSA Authority.

The anticipated provincial withdrawals were allocated as 29.183 MAF which were slightly more than 10-year average of 28.73 MAF.

The IAC also reviewed Kharif 2026 season and noted that the actual inflows of 95.44 Million Acre Feet (MAF) were less than anticipations by 8%, 10-year average by 7% and last year inflows by 22%.

Provinces received indented supplies for the period of Apr-01 to May-15, 2026 and subsequently in Late Kharif period. During the Late Kharif period besides utilization of supplies as per Para 2 of the Accord, Punjab and Sindh utilized 0.077 MAF and 1.262 MAF, respectively as flood supplies under Para 4 of the Water Accord 1991.

During Kharif 20026 (Apr-Sep) season Provincial utilization of Punjab, Sindh, KP & Balochistan remained 11%, 7%, 28% & 58% less than their Accord share respectively. The total storage available on 30.09.2026 was 9.343 MAF which was less than anticipated, 10-year av. and last year volumes of 12.014 MAF, 9.938 MAF and 13.214 MAF, respectively.

The escapage downstream Kotri during Kharif 2026 was 10.40 MAF against IAC anticipated, 10-year av. and last year of 13.05 MAF, 15.43 MAF and 30.85 MAF, respectively.

The IAC also reviewed the progress of on-going works on WAPDA’s T4 LLO and T5 HPP and urged that they should be completed as early as possible as they were already substantially delayed and causing shortages to the Provinces during Kharif Seasons.

The forum also approved the closure of Chashma Barrage tentatively from 26th December 2026 to 14th January 2027 (21 Days), as these dates are in synchronization with Provincial Annual Canal Closure Programs.

The meeting was attended, inert alia, by IRSA Members, Chief Engineering Advisor (CEA), MoWR; Members of WAPDA’s Water & Power Wings; Secretaries Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs) of Punjab and Sindh along with their senior officers; Senior Officers from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, General Manager WAPDA Tarbela and their senior officers; WAPDA Advisors; Senior Representatives of Provincial Agriculture Departments and Director (Opr) IRSA along with senior technical officers and personnel.