Hybrid warfare shrinking crisis response window: experts

ISLAMABAD, Oct 01 (APP): Experts at a roundtable hosted by the Arms and Disarmament Centre (ACDC) of the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) on Wednesday warned that rapidly evolving hybrid warfare, driven by cyber operations, artificial intelligence, information manipulation and diplomatic pressure, is shrinking decision making timelines and creating new challenges for Pakistan’s national security, strategic stability and societal resilience.

The roundtable, titled “Hybrid Warfare and Pakistan’s National Security: Navigating the Cyber, Information and Diplomatic Nexus,” brought together strategic experts and academics to examine the changing nature of hybrid threats, their implications for deterrence and crisis management in South Asia, and measures to strengthen Pakistan’s preparedness and resilience.

Air Commodore (Retd.) Khalid Banuri, Senior Advisor at JCCL, said hybrid warfare had compressed decision-making timelines and reduced the space available for crisis management and diplomacy.

He noted that cyber and information operations could increasingly intersect with strategic stability, creating additional complexities during crises.

He stressed the need for stronger communication mechanisms, verification of information before escalation and proactive measures to maintain stability in an increasingly complex security environment.

Ms. Adeela Waqar, Director Labs at PKCERT, highlighted vulnerabilities arising from growing dependence on data, third party services and interconnected digital systems.

 She said critical infrastructure required greater resilience planning to ensure the continuity of essential services during disruptions.

Dr. Sumaira Kausar, Director CoE-AI at Bahria University, said artificial intelligence could accelerate the production and dissemination of both authentic and manipulated content, allowing information to rapidly gain public and media attention and potentially trigger diplomatic reactions.

She noted that AI-driven influence operations could further compress the decision-making window, leaving limited time for verification, assessment and response.

Dr. Zahir Kazmi, Advisor at SPD, said diplomacy and strategic communication alone could not address hybrid threats and needed to be backed by institutional resilience, credible capabilities and effective crisis-management mechanisms.

He stressed the importance of stronger coordination, verification mechanisms, regular preparedness exercises and pre established communication channels to deal with disruptions that could be exploited against national interests.

Dr. Zafar Ali, Director Research at SVI, and Dr. Bilal Zubair, Director Research at CISS, highlighted the evolving role of strategic communication in shaping domestic and international perceptions, particularly in the context of the upcoming National Security Policy.

They observed that citizens had increasingly become part of the hybrid battlefield, requiring a more audience centric approach to national security.

They stressed that countering emerging threats also required resilient institutions, effective narratives, greater public awareness and stronger economic, political and social foundations.

The roundtable provided a platform for experts to exchange views on emerging security dynamics and discuss measures to strengthen Pakistan’s national preparedness and resilience against evolving forms of hybrid warfare.