Economic growth in Uzbekistan forecast at around 7% in 2026

TASHKENT, March 4 (UzA/APP) : Economic growth in Uzbekistan is expected to reach around 7% in 2026. The main contributing factors are cited as business activity, monetary and financial systems, banking operations, industrial production, and retail trade.
According to the Center for Economic Research and Reforms’ forecast for the first quarter of 2026, despite global challenges last year, Uzbekistan’s economy remained stable. By the end of 2025, Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 7.7%, exceeding the previous year’s indicator (6.7%). The previously published forecast by the Center also demonstrated high accuracy, deviating from the actual result by only 0.2 percentage points. This fact confirms the reliability of the forecasting approaches used.
Based on a dynamic factors model, economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be approximately 7% year-on-year. The main contribution to the forecast comes from business activity indicators (3.1 percentage points), the monetary and financial sectors (1 percentage point), banking transaction dynamics (0.9 percentage points), industrial production (0.6 percentage points), and retail trade (0.3 percentage points).
Additionally, the forecast was calculated using machine learning methods. A total of 250 weekly indicators across 20 categories on Google Search were analyzed. According to the results, economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be around 7.2%. Based on search query dynamics in January 2026, queries in the “Internet and Telecommunications” category increased by 19.3% compared to the same period last year. In the “Finance” category, growth was 7.9%, while in the “Shopping” category it was 5.2%.
A comparison of the two approaches shows that, in the first quarter of 2026, gross domestic product will grow by 7% to 7.2%. Economic growth will be positively influenced by improvements in the business environment, increased financial and investment activity, the development of the industrial and service sectors, and greater efficiency in investment processes.