Experts: Resolving the water crisis in Central Asia requires interstate cooperation

TASHKENT, Feb 02 (UzA/APP) : The per capita availability of renewable water resources in Central Asia continues to decline, despite individual improvements in water conservation.
This is evidenced by data from the updated Aquastat database published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations for December 2025.
According to the review, since 2015, Central Asian countries have lost about 12 percent of their per capita renewable freshwater resources. This is one of the highest rates in the world.
The problem is not only climate change. Bulat Yessekin, Coordinator of the Central Asian Platform on Water Resources Management and Climate Change, emphasizes that the key cause of the growing water shortage is not climate change but the existing water management model. According to him, Central Asia is among the regions with limited water availability, while all countries of the region are located within the single Aral Sea basin. Such interdependence, the environmental expert notes, elevates the water issue to the interstate level and increases the importance of coordinated decisions.
The expert added that the irrational use of water aggravates the situation. The production of water-intensive agricultural products, primarily cotton and rice, has not decreased.
Declining reservoir levels:
Bulat Yessekin noted that this year, reservoirs in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan are filling significantly more slowly than in previous years. In his assessment, if current trends persist, the region may face a near-future water shortage comparable to that in Iran, which could negatively affect electricity generation and agricultural output.
According to him, economic planning in Central Asian countries is still based on the previous paradigm – the assumption that natural systems can independently replenish resources being withdrawn. However, this mechanism no longer works.
Focus on “blue water”
According to Bulat Yessekin, the region’s water policy is focused primarily on the use of so-called “blue water” – water in rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and underground aquifers.
– At the same time, the “green” part of the water cycle – water in soil, vegetation, and the atmosphere, which previously ensured the stability of water and climate processes – is practically not taken into account, – the environmental expert noted. – Restoring these mechanisms requires a shift from large-scale engineering solutions to more localized approaches aimed at retaining water in the landscape and restoring water flows. The countries of Central Asia are taking steps to improve water-use efficiency. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have adopted new water codes that emphasize water-saving technologies, tariff regulation, monitoring, and digitalization. However, without replenishing water sources and restoring water flows, such measures have a limited effect. Additional pressure on the system is created by new infrastructure projects in the region, including the construction of a significant diversion canal in Afghanistan, which could affect the Amudarya’s flow.
Central Asia is increasingly regarded as a global “hot spot” in the water crisis. In turn, environmental specialist Aizhan Kossantayeva, who has practical experience implementing climate and water projects in Central Asian countries, noted that the region’s landlocked geography and climate have historically led to water resource shortages.
– Today, Central Asia is increasingly considered a “hot spot” and one of the most vulnerable regions in the world in terms of climate change and the water crisis, – Kossantayeva noted. According to World Bank forecasts, the region’s water deficit could reach 25-30 percent by 2050. Data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also indicate a likely increase of 5-20 percent in the frequency of droughts. The expected intensification of water stress by up to 2.8 times in certain areas in the near future is compounded by existing vulnerabilities. Low water-use efficiency, worn-out infrastructure, large-scale agriculture, and rapid population growth are increasing pressure on water systems.
Speaking about the dynamics of water resources, Aizhan Kossantayeva noted that over the next decade, there may be an impression of relative stability or even an increase in water flow, which is associated with the intensive melting of glaciers. However, according to her, this effect is temporary.
– Statistics show that over the past 50 years, glaciers in the countries of Central Asia have lost about 30 percent of their area, while reduced precipitation does not allow them to replenish, – the environmental expert emphasized. Among the possible technical solutions is creating artificial glaciers. Such technologies are already being applied in other countries, and for Central Asia, this is rather a matter of time and proper preparation.
Ways to address the water crisis and the diversion of the Siberian river flows
Commenting on the Soviet-era project to divert the flow of Siberian rivers, which periodically returns to the public and political agenda today, the expert Aizhan Kossantayeva emphasized that such initiatives carry serious environmental and political risks.
– At that time, the project envisaged diverting water through open canals, – she noted. – Today, the idea of resuming the project is being reconsidered and periodically discussed, but using closed pipeline systems, which appears promising, yet also faces considerable criticism. Any large-scale intervention in an ecosystem is unpredictable and often irreversible. The example of the Aral Sea clearly demonstrates this.
Responding to a question about possible ways to address the water crisis, Aizhan Kossantayeva noted that the concept of “adaptation” is increasingly being raised on international platforms. In her opinion, this is precisely the direction in which the region should focus its efforts – adapting to changing conditions while paying special attention to the most vulnerable areas. These include the Aral Sea region, where the population is already suffering from the consequences of the Aral Sea disaster, and densely populated areas such as the Fergana Valley.
In addition, Kossantayeva emphasized the importance of interstate cooperation and the role of regional platforms, such as the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia, as key mechanisms for dialogue and coordination.