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BUNER, Aug 21 (APP):As the dust settles and relief efforts continue in flood-ravaged parts of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), meteorologists are urging calm and clarity in the face of swirling misinformation about cloudburst.
Contrary to viral claims on social and digital media, the catastrophic flooding in Buner and Swat district on August 15 last was not triggered by a cloudburst, experts say, but by the rare convergence of two powerful weather systems over the region.
The tragedy, which has so far claimed more than 427 lives including 291 in Buner, shocked people across the country.
Homes and hotels were swept away, families displaced, and critical infrastructure left in ruins in flood hit areas of Buner, Swat and other districts due to flash floods and torrential rains.
In the immediate aftermath, speculation intensified on social media, with many attributing the disaster to a “cloudburst”—a term that evokes sudden, torrential downpours with devastating impact in Buner, Shanga, Swat and Swabi districts.
But former scientists at the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) have stepped forward to correct the cloudburst narrative and termed it a collision of westerns and eastern weather systems in Malakand division.
Speaking to APP, Syed Mushtaq Ali Shah, former Chief Meteorologist at the PMD, explained that the meteorological data from the day of the disaster tells a different story and dispelled cloudsburst theory attributed to recent flooding.
“These systems collided in Buner, causing unprecedented rainfall. But calling it a cloudburst is scientifically incorrect,” Mushtaq Shah reiterated.
He said the extreme rainfall occurred when two distinct weather systems—one entering KP from the west and another from the east—converged over the mountainous terrain of Buner. This interaction intensified moisture content in the atmosphere, leading to extended and heavy rainfall that caused flash floods.
Unlike a cloudburst, which is typically a hyper-local phenomenon affecting a compact area with rainfall intensities exceeding 100 mm in less than an hour, the rains over Buner were widespread and sustained.
PMD equipment recorded no such spike in precipitation levels that would qualify the event as a cloudburst.
“The term ‘cloudburst’ is being misused and is creating unnecessary panic among the public,” Mushtaq Shah added, warning of the dangers of inaccurate reporting during natural disasters.
The national forest policy revealed that Pakistan’s total forest covered area was only five percent and the country was losing about 27,000 hectares of forests per year mainly in private and community owned natural forests.
The policy further revealed that forests resources in all provinces especially in KP and Gilgit Baltistan was under tremendous pressures particularly in the communal lands, shamalats, guzara and private owned forests.
The large scale deforestation in private and communal lands besides cutting of trees in watershed areas has adversely impacted climate conditions, flash floods, agriculture yield and quantity of water at outlets besides triggering land degradation, loss of biodiversity and wildlife in Khyber Pakthunkhwa.
In riparian and coastal areas especially in Sindh and Balochistan besides mountains areas of Hazara and Malakand division, the deforestation amplified floods and facilitates sea water intrusion thus inflicting huge economic losses due to the government kitty as evident of devastative 2010, 2002 and 2025 floods.
Comparing Pakistan’s deforestation rate with the world, Niaz Ali, former Chief Conservator Forests KP said that globally around 10 million hectares of forest every year were deforested equal to area of Portugal.
He said around half of this deforestation was counterbalanced by re-growing of forests, which means that an overall around five million hectares of the green gold was lost per year worldwide.
Niaz said that flash floods intensified in northern KP due to deforestation and illegal construction of hotels in riverbeds.
Echoing Shah’s assessment, Irfan Virk, a current official at PMD, confirmed that radar and ground-based monitoring did not detect the sudden, extreme precipitation typically associated with cloudbursts.
“Our radars did not detect the kind of extreme, sudden precipitation associated with a cloudburst,” Virk said. “The flooding was due to prolonged and heavy rainfall and not a sudden burst.”
Virk also pointed to a growing trend and said that the increased frequency of unusual weather patterns in Pakistan, many of which are attributed to climate change. However, he cautioned against hastily assigning unfamiliar terms to these events without scientific basis and confirmation.
“Climate change is definitely altering rainfall patterns, but that does not mean every extreme weather event is a cloudburst,” he explained.
Beyond the meteorological explanations, both experts highlighted another aggravating factor such as environmental degradation.
Deforestation, unregulated construction in vulnerable zones especially in riverbeds and poor land management have amplified the region’s susceptibility to flash floods.
The large scale removal of trees in community lands in KP reduces the soil’s ability to absorb rainwater, leading to faster runoff and more severe flooding.
“Cutting down forests has reduced the natural buffer zones in forested areas, making flash floods more likely and more destructive,” warned Virk.
Experts argue that the combination of heavy rainfall and deforestation has turned what could have been a manageable weather event into a humanitarian crisis.
Both meteorologists appealed to the media and the public to use precise language and rely on verified scientific data when discussing natural disasters.
“Mislabeling such events not only causes panic but can also lead to poor policy decisions,” Shah said.
Inaccurate terminology can influence everything from emergency responses to long-term planning and international aid. The experts urged journalists and policymakers to consult meteorological authorities before drawing conclusions.
Shah and Virk also stressed the importance of enhanced climate modeling, disaster preparedness, and community education, especially as Pakistan finds itself increasingly vulnerable to the erratic impacts of climate change.
“This is a wake-up call for our disaster preparedness and environmental management,” Shah concluded.
As the people of Buner and surrounding areas begin the arduous task of rebuilding their lives, understanding the true nature of what happened is more than an academic exercise—it’s the foundation for future resilience.